Success not Always Answerable to the Probability of Second Causes
Ecclesiastes 9:11
I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise…


Next to the acknowledgment of God's being, nothing is more essential to religion than the belief of His providence, and a constant dependence Upon Him as the great Governor of the world and the wise Disposer of all the affairs and concernments of the children of men; and nothing can be a greater argument of providence than that there is such an order of causes laid in nature, that in ordinary course everything does usually attain its end; and yet that there is such a mixture of contingency as that now and then we cannot tell how nor why the most likely causes do deceive us, and fail of producing their usual effects. The sum of the Preacher's advice is this: When thou propoundest any end to thyself, be diligent and vigorous in the use of means; and when thou hast done all, look above and beyond these to a superior Cause which overrules, and steers, and stops, as He pleases, all the motions and activity of second causes; and be not confident that all things are ever so wisely and firmly laid that they cannot fail of success. For the providence of God doth many times step in to divert the most probable event of things, and to turn it quite another way; and whenever He pleases to do so, the most strong and likely means do fall lame, or stumble, or by some accident or other come short of their end. The words thus explained contain this general proposition — That in human affairs the most likely means do not always attain their end, nor does the event constantly answer the probability of second causes; but there is a secret providence which governs and overrules all things, and does, when it pleases, interpose to defeat the most hopeful and probable designs.

I. FOR THE CONFIRMATION AND ILLUSTRATION OF THIS PROPOSITION, that the most likely means do not always attain their end; but there is a secret providence which overrules and governs all events, and does, when it pleases, interpose to defeat the most probable and hopeful designs. "The race is not to the swift." If we understand this literally, it is obvious to every man to imagine a great many accidents in a race which may snatch victory from the swiftest runner. If we understand it as the Chaldee paraphrase does, with relation to war, that the swiftest does not always overcome or escape in the day of battle; of this Asahel is an eminent instance, who, though he was, as the Scripture tells us, "light of foot as a wild roe," yet did he not escape the spear of Abner. "Nor yet bread to the wise," or to the learned. The poverty of poets is proverbial; and there are frequent instances in history of eminently learned persons that have been reduced to great straits and necessities. "Nor yet riches to men of understanding:" by which, whether we understand men of great parts, or of great diligence and industry, it is obvious to every man's observation that an ordinary capacity and understanding does usually lie more level to the business of a common trade and profession than more refined and elevated parts; which lie rather for speculation than-practice, and are better fitted for the pleasure and ornament of conversation than for the toil and drudgery of business: as a fine razor is admirable for cutting hairs, but the dull hatchet much more proper for hewing a hard and knotty piece of timber. And even when parts and industry meet together, they are many times less successful in the raising of a great estate than men of much lower and slower understandings; because these are apt to admire riches, which is a great spur to industry; and because they are perpetually intent upon one thing, and mind but one business, from which their thoughts never straggle into vain and useless inquiries after knowledge, or news, or public affairs; all which being foreign to their business, they leave to those who are, as they are wont to say of them in scorn, more curious, and too wise to be rich. "Nor yet favour to men of skill." All history is full of instances of the casual advancement of men to great favour and honour, when others, who have made it their serious study and business, have fallen short of it.

II. SOME REASON AND ACCOUNT OF THIS, why the providence of God doth sometimes thus interpose to hinder and defeat the most probable designs of men: — To bring men to an acknowledgment of His providence, and of their dependence upon Him, and subordination to Him; and that He is the great Governor of the world, and "rules in the kingdoms of men." God hath so ordered things in the administration of the affairs of the world as to encourage the use of means; and yet so as to keep men in a continual dependence upon Him for the efficacy and success of them: to encourage industry and prudence God generally permits things to their natural course, and to fall out according to the power and probability of second causes. But then, lest men should cast off religion, and "deny the God that is above": lest they should "trust in their sword and their bow, and say, the Lord hath not done this": lest men should look upon themselves as the creators and framers of their own fortune, and when they do but a little outstrip others in wisdom or power, in the skill and conduct of human affairs, they should grow proud and presumptuous, God is pleased sometimes more remarkably to interpose, "to hide pride from man," as the expression is in Job; to check the haughtiness and insolence of men's spirits, and to keep them within the bounds of modesty and humility; to make us to know "that we are but men," and that the reins of the world are not in our hands, but that there is One above who sways and governs all things here below.

III. SOME INFERENCES FROM WHAT HATH BEEN SAID UPON THIS ARGUMENT.

1. From hence we may learn not to account religion, and time spent in the service of God, and in prayer to Him for His blessing upon our endeavours, to be any hindrance to our affairs. For after we have done all we can, the event is still in God's hand, and rests upon the disposal of His providence. And did men firmly believe this, they would not neglect the duty of prayer, and behave themselves so carelessly, and unconcernedly, and irreverently in it as we see too many do; they would not look upon every hour that is spent in devotion as lost from their business.

2. From hence we may likewise learn so to use the means as still to depend upon God; who can, as He pleases, bless the counsels and endeavours of men, or blast them and make them of none effect. For as God hath promised nothing but to a wise and diligent use of means, so all our prudence, and industry, and most careful preparations may miscarry, if He do not favour our design; for without Him nothing is wise, nothing is strong, nothing is able to reach and attain its end.

3. The consideration of what hath been said upon this argument should keep us from being too sanguine and confident of the most likely designs and undertakings; because these do not always answer the probability of second causes and means; and never less than when we do with the greatest confidence rely upon them; when we promise most to ourselves from them, then are they most likely to deceive us; they are, as the prophet compares them, like a broken reed, which a man may walk with in his hand, while he lays no great stress upon it; but if he trust to it, and lean his whole weight on it, it will not only fail him, but even pierce him through.

(J. Tillotson, D. D.)



Parallel Verses
KJV: I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.

WEB: I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favor to men of skill; but time and chance happen to them all.




Prosperity - the Rule and the Exception
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